To position the United States to make a strategic impact on global food security, the Food Security Leadership Council is focused, in the face of significant global headwinds, on strengthening food availability—through production, trade, and if necessary, aid. Food availability is the foundation on which all other elements of food security depend, it is at risk over the long term, and it requires strong international leadership and multilateral collaboration to address.
Food availability is affected by an array of factors—including, notably, conflict. Ultimately, however, food availability relies on five pillars. They are the most basic elements of a strong, resilient food supply; without them, food security is not achievable.
Those pillars are:
Each of these is under immense pressure, further complicating the difficult path to achieving food security in a growing, climate-stressed world. Positioning the United States and its friends and partners strategically to re-enforce these five pillars will be the primary objective of our work.
Our food sources must be adapted and managed to maintain or boost productivity. Climate change is making that harder.
As we pass mid-century, many of the coolest and best growing seasons will closely resemble some of the hottest and worst of the past. In addition to higher average temperatures, climate change is producing:
Pest and disease losses will escalate as temperatures rise. Insects already consume up to 20% of major grain crops. For wheat, rice, and corn, yield loss to insects will increase up to 25% per degree Celsius of warming, with the worst effects in the temperate zones where most grain is produced. As Rob Dunn puts it, “most species on Earth will need to move to survive climate change….There are hundreds of species of crop parasites that have not yet arrived everywhere they can live.” Species are on the move, throwing together unique combinations of species in agricultural fields with unknown, but surely not positive, effects on food production.
Soil is the foundation for 95% of our food supply. The amount and quality matters. Healthy soils can increase productivity, fertilizer and water efficiency, and resilience to extreme weather, pests and disease.
Yet, the state of our global soils is fragile and declining. By 2015, more than a third of the world’s soil was moderately to highly degraded. HYPERLINK "https://library.unccd.int/Details/fullCatalogue/700001036"24 billion tons of fertile soil are lost each year. On the current trajectory, of the world’s land could be degraded by 2050. Recently, the world has lost almost 250 million acres of healthy and productive land each year— twice the size of Greenland.95% of the world’s land could be degraded by 2050. Recently, the world has lost almost 250 million acres of healthy and productive land each year— twice the size of Greenland.
While land degradation is occurring around the world, it is particularly acute in certain areas. According to the African Union, 75-80% of Africa’s cultivated land is degraded. More than half of currently arable land may be “unusable” by 2050. In Bangladesh, up to 75% of land area is degraded; in Pakistan, up to 61%.
The degradation of agricultural lands can be exacerbated by choices in farming practices and compounded by extreme weather, but it can also be remedied through practices such as conservation agriculture. Uptake of such practices is increasing, but has a long way to go; as of 2015, they were used on only about 11% of cropland globally.
The importance of water to crop production is obvious—and growing, as temperatures rise. “If you go from [77 to 95º Fahrenheit], you more than double the amount of water needed to maintain a given level of growth,” according to Council Distinguished Fellow David Lobell.
Yet, water is increasingly scarce. Currently, 21 of 37 of the largest aquifers are being depleted faster than they can recharge. Seventy percent of groundwater withdrawals are used for agriculture. A quarter of the world’s population and sixty percent of irrigated agriculture already faces extremely water stress. By 2050, global water demand will have increased by up to 50%, putting an additional billion people under extreme water stress.
Functioning markets and open trade promote food availability by enabling increases in production, facilitating access to critical agriculture inputs, technologies, and innovations, and helping to move food to areas where it is needed. It diversifies available foods and stabilizes prices in the face of variations and fluctuations in supply and demand around the world.
The market for food is an international one in which countries are highly interdependent. 131 of 196 countries are net food importers. About 23% of food consumed globally depends on international trade and 65% of countries’ agricultural inputs, such as fertilizer and machinery, are imported.
However, international agricultural trade faces significant constraints. Agriculture faces significantly higher tariff barriers than other sectors – twice that of manufacturing— and is the sector most affected by non-tariff barriers. National trade policies can further stress the global food system. For example, food exporting countries may face political pressure to ban or restrict critical exports just when they are needed most. More than 20 countries imposed such restrictions as prices rose in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Shocks in the food system also increase the likelihood of commodity speculation, often causing price spikes.
Functioning markets also rely on access, both physical and regulatory. Agriculture relies on transportation, processing, and storage infrastructure. In Sub-Saharan Africa, only a third of the rural population lives close to an all-season road. 14% of all food is lost before reaching the consumer, a major cause of which is inadequate cold chain infrastructure. Complex, opaque, and non-standardized regulations also increase costs and reduce market access, particularly for the smallest producers.
The majority of calories consumed by people around the world come from a limited number of major staple crops. 75 percent of the world’s food is generated from only 12 plants and five animal species. Only three - rice, corn, and wheat - contribute nearly 60% of calories. Around the world, most of us get 75% of our calories from only eight foods: rice, wheat, corn, potatoes, barley, palm oil, soya and sugar. Increases in yields are slowing down, and actual declines in productivity are projected for some in the future.
Good nutrition, however, requires more dietary diversity than reliance on the staples can give. Providing this dietary diversity can also increase the stability and resilience of peoples’ food sources. A food system that relies on so few crops—and in some circumstances, so few varieties of those crops—is vulnerable to shocks from climate change, pests, and disease.
Looking ahead and mindful of the productivity challenges facing many of the world’s major crops, there is great untapped potential to increase food production and improve nutrition with strategic investments in aquaculture and fisheries, in tree, fruit, and vegetable production, and in the development of new foods from microorganisms and fungi.
These five pillars of food security—productive crops and livestock, healthy soil, well-managed water, functioning markets, and diversified food systems—will be our lodestars.
In a dizzyingly complex global food system, the pillars are not sufficient to achieve food security, but they are necessary. By focusing on the fundamentals, we can chart a path for U.S. leadership that is focused, coherent, and strategic.
While narrowing our focus to the fundamental requirements for food availability, we will broaden our view of the tools available to achieve them. We will consider the policies, programs, and investments necessary to reinforce the pillars through six pathways:
These are the building blocks of our Blueprint for U.S. Leadership in Global Food Security. The Blueprint will outline a strategy for the United States to lead the world in strengthening the five pillars through these six pathways—in a manner that deliberately advances both our core interests and core values.
1763 Columbia Rd NW
Suite 175
Washington, DC 20009-2891
